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Three Targets in 2012

The Great Depression--The Parallels--13th Update
Confidence and the Role of CPI and Tbills
Chart
Dow Jones Industrial Average vs Inflation and Interest Rates
5.5 years--August 31, 2007--February 28, 2013
which parallel
5.5 years--July 2, 1937--December 31, 1942
Weekly


This chart tracks inflation and interest rates today
versus the same during the Great Depression.
The parallels are exquisite.

This is the 13th update.
See previous article here with links to earlier editions.


Three Targets in 2012

This the first time in this study, at attempt is made to identify future turning points. Three are marked above at the points of each vertical needle. They are determined by a combination of cycles work and price-related patterns.

The needles point exactly to the potential date and bottom price of the DJIA. For example, A marks a price bottom at 7000 on June 22, 2012 after a -41% decline from today. B marks a -26% decline to 8710, ending August 10. C ends on October 19th at 5384 after drop of -54% from today. That date is, by the way, just two weeks prior to the most momentous U.S. election in modern times.

The top curves track DJIA values during the parallel periods explained in the headers above the chart. The lower curves show two measures of confidence then and now. Fluctuations in both inflation and interest rates are symptoms of the presence or absence of aggregate public and private confidence. Tbill rates today have not shown a quiver for years. Inflation is stuck in a flaccid climb in contrast to its dynamic ascent in 1941.

All problems are transient. They will be resolved.
But not quite yet.

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Outlook The long-term ~70-year cycle is made up of two 36-year cycles. See here how its components fit together. These point to the current base platform lasting possibly to 2020 before the next launch. That will result in a following decade-and-a-half or longer of exuberant growth as has happened before during the last couple of hundred years.

stocks and stock market timing best profits in the U.S.


Posted
10/23/2011 6:05 p.m. EDT




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\CRASH\MNTH1789\SN_ALLH@.XLC 240         Cycles/SN240_12       tip94
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