Here, the Short term level leaps into clarity, leaving no doubt as to its relevant position to the mean.
But what about the randomness of the curve itself since it is wholly derived from the portfolio prices, all of which are exuberantly random? No matter how many random sequential prices you take into account, you will never arrive at greater than 50-50 probability for the next trade. Each price is independent of each price that went before. The red curve is a series of singular price events. See here.
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