Timing Breakthrough Adopted
New Timing Module Adds 2026%
To Original System
7.5 years April 26, 2002--November 30, 2009
Mostly USA ETFs Portfolio
Hypothetical--Weekly
Volatility Comments below
Volatility. Version 1.0 of this system was created and posted in 2006. You can see that previous volatility, what there was of it, was mostly limited to late 2002. The trading range from there through 2006 was unremarkable with respect to volatilty.
The timing module in the system that was built then accordingly was overweighted toward the medium term--roughly six months--of price behavior. That weighting produced the results of record till now.
Then the crash of 2008 arrived like a summer hurricane. The volality accompanying it demolished the ability of the optimized six-months module to keep up with the direction and speed of the price recovery starting in March this year.
The remedy is to shorten the time window in the original module. This has been done, with the results that you see above--along with greatly reduced potential for substantial losses or drawdowns.
What about future reliability of this change in the system process? I think that now with two episodes of extreme volality built into the amended module, it is closer to an all-weather vehicle than before. This module accommodates future time windows now that include both short term as well as intermediate.
|
|