The Entetainment Factor.
Is Any of It Believable? Or Even Useful?
Confidence and the Role of CPI and Tbills
Chart
Dow Jones Industrial Average vs Inflation and Interest Rates
5.5 years--August 31, 2007--February 28, 2013
which parallel
5.5 years--July 2, 1937--December 31, 1942
Weekly
Comments below
|
The comparisons of current times with 'The Great Depression' of the 1930's stretch from here to infinity. Every economist, financial planner or commentator, member of every House and Senate--federal or state, regulator, staff of the Fed and the Treasury, worldwide, has an opinion.
What do you think any of these is worth? Not much without proofs. There are none. Each group alleges the faults lie with the other group. There is no shortage of blame. If causes are not specific and provable, including date of onset, precise cure is impossible.
Therefore, of what value is this vast hullabaloo that fills airwaves and printing presses around the world without end, amen? In a word, entertainment. Even as you read this and others elsewhere, you and they are entertained by the opinions and performance ability and persuasiveness or attractiveness of the author of the analysis and his or her recommendations, explicit or implied.
Beyond that, the closer that the opinions you are entertained by are able to offer specific provable data and dates, the better off your chances are that you will be able to make or lose a lot of your wealth in your acting upon them. Follow the money, if you can.
The picture above is money, every curve of it. The facts and the dates are precise and unarguable. What is missing is proof of continuance. One observation does not prove a repetition. Thus, this, thus far, is just one more entertainment piece along the highway of the slow-motion, seemingly unending crash the world is witnessing. All the drivers slow down to gawk and, slowing down, are the causes of additional, unnecessary, bumper accidents ahead and behind.
Part 2 of this commentary is already in the study stage. It will demonstrate steps closer to persuasiveness if not yet with the scientific purity and compulsion of mathematical factor analysis. Despite the risk of this being pure entertainment, I am persuaded. Perhaps you may be, too.
This chart updates the original article dealing with the current rolling crises and their correlation(s) with the 'Great Depression'. It tells what is being measured and why--here.
Posted
7/6/2009 11:15 p.m. ET
|
|
Back
| Subscribe
|
|
\CRASH\MNTH1789\SN150T56
SN210H 5-20-1939 9-27-2009 240 2-14-1942 *10-17-2012
©
2009 The 2000 Corporation.
All Rights Reserved.
| |