GOLD (GLD) as CONTRA-MARKET (SP500) INDICATOR
Worldwide ETFs Portfolio
5.4 years June 28, 2002--November 2, 2007
See Comments below
Comments 11/9/2007
Gold!
You can make a lot of money in gold, or gold stocks, funds, or ETFs. For instance, +154% in the period shown above. But this is not about that--a discussion for another day. It's about using gold as a signal of broad market behavior.
The price of gold is alledgedly the indicator sine qua non to tell you that the market and the economy are normal and healthy--or that a panic is at hand, and something terrible about to happen.
The current rise got started in 2001 and starting last year seems to be accelerating. The liftoff that started eight weeks ago has not yet reached orbital velocity. It may not ever during this current episode of frightful international money, credit, and political news. Then you may see a market collapse without the blowoff gold signal.
The numbers underlying the chart are instructive. Acting on the buy/sell signals from gold eliminates two drawdowns over a total of five months. The worse was -16%. And it raises the S&P500 total return from +53% to +76% during the period covered.
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