WINNING INVESTMENTS with EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS

Every week exhibits the ever-present premise of random performance in the stock market. Home

Random rolling performance with bars of illustration


 

RANDOMNESS

Each point on each curve marks the performance value in percent gain over the prior six months. The green pole rises from the week dated September 5, 2003. This week is at or near the peak six-month performances of both the Winning System and the market itself (SP500).

However, from that date forward until July 9, 2004--ten months--the first red pole, the system's margin of beating the market continually narrows. During the last three months, the system performs worse than the market!

This happened again during the latter half of the one-year period marked by the two red poles when the system became both negative and well below market performance.

These impressions do not jibe well with the landscape impressions that existed at the time of the bars. But I do not believe that would have deterred you from signing up then because the landscapes you would have seen were all very favorable at the time, showing +45% vs -8% for the system vs the market at the first pole and +69 vs +3, +67 vs 0, and +108 vs +9 at the next three poles.*

And therein lies the solution to the expectations/future impressions problem. WEALTH
CONTEXT
RANDOMNESS
>>EXPECT THE BEST
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  * Any good landscape impression will make you want to buy. Any valley undulation will tempt you to quit. Acknowledging and balancing the two conflicting impressions in joint context will enable landscape to trump undulation. It's the deliberate awareness of the undulations that allows their mastery.



BIBLIOGRAPHY - Book to read

TALEB, Nassim Nicholas, Fooled by Randomness
Random House Publishing Group NY 2005
ISBN: 0812975219

                                                               



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