WINNING INVESTMENTS with EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS

Week ending January 18, 2008
Present market decline
Worldwide ETFs

Note on Context

The current drawdown from the last price peak to this week is -14.4% over 12 weeks. See the previous five-year-and-a-half-year record for comparison.

This tells you nothing about next week but does suggest the approach described in Tips for Getting Started which appear here.

Bu, to be bold enough to use that tip, a personal self-examinaton versus the current state of the market would be good.

The steadily growing bad news of global financial crisis presumably teeters the world on the edge of universal panic. The question now is: can a technical investment system using pure numbers, ignorant of emotion, continue to call the shots?

The strength of the question lies in the fact that this trading system has not been through comparable prior crises. There are no similar events of current severity in recent memory. Can it, or any other system for that matter, come through the devastating storm of a genuine pandemic panic?

The answer lies within system structure. Three of the 23 components in Worldwide ETFs are geared to definitive bear markets which precede panic. Gold, Ursa, and Treasury Bills are the premier havens of safety toward which to fly. These are antithetical to major market declines--no matter what the source, cause, or effects.

When one or more of these three pop to the top of the rankings system, they automatically signal to the user that the market is a bear, and panic may be near. And position the use for survival, even profit.

If you look at this week's portfolio rankings, you see Gold already in the top slot with Tbills and Ursa jumping across median rank this week and last, and gaining momentum in their ascents toward the top.

You are already half-way hedged toward panic with your recent position in gold.

See more for additional System performance context.

January 20, 2008 4:40 PM ET



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