Stock Market Timing U.S. Stocks - Help-Wanted Advertising Index 1960 to 2001

Common wisdom has it that you can't use the economy to forecast the market.
That's not true. If you look at the dynamics of change in economic series, not just
their present levels, you can extract valuable information.

In the chart above, the blue bars mark the fifth consecutive monthly decline in the
Help-Wanted Advertising Index. Declines of this duration coincide almost exactly with
the final low month of a preceding bear market in U.S. stocks.

April 30, 2001, marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline in the help-wanted
index. If the Conference Board's May 31st report, due out at the end of June, comes
in below the April low of 65, it will confirm with high probability the beginning of a
new bull market in stocks. (Update June 29: Yesterday, The Conference Board
reported a 60 level for May, confirming.)

This likelihood is already in place because the magnitude of the help-wanted
decline already matches those of prior episodes since 1970.
__________________

* Data with permission of The Conference Board Chart: 1 Jan 1960 through 30 Apr 2001
TREASURIES/HELPWANT

STOCK MARKET TIMING U.S. STOCKS
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Common wisdom has it that you can't use the economy to forecast the market. That's not true. If you look at the dynamics of change in economic series, not just their present levels, you can extract valuable information. In the chart above, the blue bars mark the fifth consecutive monthly decline in the Help-Wanted Advertising Index. Declines of this duration coincide almost exactly with the final low month of a preceding bear market in U.S. stocks. April 30, 2001, marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline in the help-wanted index. If the Conference Board's May 31st report, due out at the end of June, comes in below the April low of 65, it will confirm with high probability the beginning of a new bull market in stocks. (Update June 29: Yesterday, The Conference Board reported a 60 level for May, confirming.) This likelihood is already in place because the magnitude of the help-wanted decline already matches those of prior episodes since 1970. __________________ * Data with permission of The Conference Board Chart: 1 Jan 1960 through 30 Apr 2001 TREASURIES/HELPWANT